Winter could take longer than usual to settle across much of Canada, with an unusually strong El Niño expected to favor a milder and, in many regions, drier fall, according to The Weather Network’s latest seasonal outlook.
The forecast suggests that September and October will still bring typical swings between warm spells and brief periods of chilly or stormy weather, but the overall pattern is expected to lean warmer as the season progresses. Persistent winter conditions are forecast to arrive later than usual in many areas.
Meteorologists say the exceptionally strong El Niño developing in the tropical Pacific is the main factor influencing the outlook. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center also says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
What Canadians Can Expect This Fall
The Weather Network expects warmer-than-normal conditions across much of Canada, although regional differences will remain significant.
In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate, while early winter-like cold spells remain possible. Drier conditions are also favored across much of the Prairies, except for southern areas where precipitation could be closer to normal.
In Ontario, the transition into winter is expected to be slower, with fewer classic fall storms overall. A stronger warmth signal is forecast later in the season, although an early cold spell or major storm could still temporarily disrupt the pattern.
British Columbia is expected to experience a more mixed fall. The B.C. Interior is forecast to turn milder and drier through much of the season, while coastal areas could remain closer to seasonal temperatures. A more active Pacific storm pattern may develop later in the fall.
A Mild Fall Does Not Mean No Early Snow
Meteorologists caution that a delayed winter does not mean Canada will avoid snow, freezing temperatures or Arctic air altogether.
The seasonal outlook describes the expected dominant weather pattern, while individual cold snaps and major storms can still occur. Northern and higher-elevation communities are particularly likely to experience early winter conditions despite the broader mild pattern.
The Weather Network also warns that fewer storms do not necessarily mean weaker storms. A single major weather event could still have a significant impact on a region during the fall.
El Niño Could Also Influence the Coming Winter
The strength and evolution of El Niño will be important for Canada’s eventual winter pattern. The Weather Network says it is too early to make a definitive winter forecast, noting that several atmospheric factors will determine how the season develops.
For now, the outlook points toward a slow transition from summer to winter, giving Canadians more time before persistent cold becomes established.
Swifteradio.com
