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What’s Next After Nasrallah’s Assassination?: Hezbollah’s Future in Jeopardy
The recent assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding leader of Hezbollah, marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group. This pivotal event raises critical questions about the potential for a broader and more devastating conflict involving Iran and the United States.
What’s Next for Hezbollah?
Hezbollah is currently grappling with profound losses. With its leadership structure heavily compromised due to the assassination of key commanders and disruptions to its communication systems, the organization is in a precarious position. Mohammed Al-Basha, a Middle East security analyst, notes, “The loss of Hassan Nasrallah will have significant implications, potentially destabilizing the group and altering its political and military strategies in the short term.”
However, any expectation that Hezbollah will abandon its anti-Israel stance is likely misguided. The group has vowed to continue its struggle and has a significant number of fighters—many seasoned veterans from the Syrian conflict—who are now clamoring for retaliation. Hezbollah possesses a substantial arsenal of long-range, precision-guided missiles capable of striking major Israeli cities like Tel Aviv. With internal pressure mounting to act, the timing of any potential attacks will be crucial.
Should Hezbollah launch a large-scale assault, Israel’s response would likely be severe, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences for Lebanon’s infrastructure and further escalating regional tensions.
Iran’s Response
The assassination of Nasrallah is a blow to Iran as much as it is to Hezbollah. The Iranian government has declared five days of mourning and has taken measures to protect its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid fears of further targeted attacks.
In light of this incident, hardliners within the Iranian regime may feel compelled to retaliate. Iran wields considerable influence over a network of armed militias throughout the Middle East, collectively referred to as the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Tehran could mobilize these factions to intensify attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases in the region. However, Iran is likely to carefully calibrate its response to avoid escalating the conflict into a full-scale war that it cannot afford.
Israel’s Military Strategy
Israel’s military intentions have become unmistakable following the assassination. The Israeli government shows no interest in a ceasefire, as proposed by 12 nations, including the United States. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) believe Hezbollah is on the defensive and aim to maintain pressure until the missile threat is neutralized.
A ground invasion seems increasingly probable, especially given the IDF’s recent troop training exercises near the Lebanese border. However, while entering Lebanon might be operationally straightforward, extracting forces could become complicated, potentially mirroring the prolonged conflict in Gaza.
In Nasrallah’s final public address, he described an Israeli incursion as “a historic opportunity” for Hezbollah, indicating that the group has been preparing for this scenario for years.
As these tensions unfold, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East remains uncertain, with implications that could reverberate far beyond Lebanon’s borders. The coming days will be crucial in determining the responses of Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel, shaping the region’s future.
Source: BBC
