China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, marking a significant demographic shift that presents mounting challenges for the country’s government and economy. According to official government data, China’s population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, representing a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year.
This ongoing trend mirrors a broader demographic pattern seen across East Asia, particularly in countries like Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong, which have also experienced plummeting birth rates. China, three years ago, joined this group of nations where population numbers are declining.
Several factors contribute to this trend, including rising living costs, which have led many young people to delay or forgo marriage and childbirth in favor of pursuing higher education and career goals. While life expectancy continues to rise, it is insufficient to offset the low birth rate, further exacerbating demographic challenges.
A significant factor in China’s population shift is its strict immigration policies, which limit the influx of foreign workers. This makes China particularly vulnerable as it faces an aging population coupled with a dwindling workforce.
Historically, China has been one of the most populous countries in the world, surviving invasions, natural disasters, and political upheavals. After World War II and the rise of the Communist Party in 1949, the population saw a dramatic increase, doubling in just three decades, despite the devastating toll of events like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
However, concerns about population growth led to the controversial “one-child policy” implemented in the late 20th century, which sought to limit family sizes. Although not a legal mandate, the policy enforced strict controls over reproduction, including forced abortions and fines for violations. This policy resulted in a significant gender imbalance, with millions more boys born than girls, contributing to a growing population of bachelors.
The gender disparity remains troubling, with the latest government report indicating 104.34 men for every 100 women. Independent studies suggest the imbalance may be even more pronounced, raising concerns about future social instability.
More alarming is the continued decline in China’s birthrate, which led to the country’s first population drop in decades in 2023. Additionally, China was narrowly overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation during this period. This demographic shift is exacerbating challenges such as an aging workforce, a shrinking consumer base, and increasing migration abroad.
Despite ongoing investments in military spending and grand infrastructure projects, China’s social security system faces growing pressure, with an increasing number of people reluctant to contribute to the underfunded pension system. The aging population, now comprising more than 22% of the total population, is forecast to exceed 30% by 2035, prompting discussions on potential changes to the retirement age.
The country’s transition to an urban society is ongoing, with 10 million people moving to cities in 2024, raising the urbanization rate to 67%. This shift, while offering opportunities, also underscores the challenges posed by China’s rapidly aging society and shrinking rural population.
Government incentives to counteract these trends, including cash incentives for families to have up to three children and financial assistance with housing, have had limited success. The situation has led some observers to suggest that China may “grow old before it grows rich,” facing a challenging economic future amid an aging and shrinking population.
As China grapples with these demographic shifts, it faces critical decisions about how to balance social, economic, and policy reforms to ensure a sustainable future for its citizens and economy.
Source: AP
