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Tag: Election2024

  • Liberal Stronghold Faces Unprecedented Challenge in Montreal Byelection

    Montreal’s traditionally Liberal stronghold of Lasalle—Émard—Verdun is experiencing a seismic shift as the upcoming byelection on September 16 approaches. The riding, once a bastion of Liberal support, is now a battleground with multiple parties vying for dominance.

    Poll aggregator 338Canada suggests a tight race, with the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals nearly neck-and-neck. The Bloc stands at 29%, slightly ahead of the Liberals at 28%, with the NDP trailing at 24%. This is a dramatic departure from past elections, where Liberals have historically held the seat with comfortable margins.

    As the election looms, voters like Daniel Wiseman, a lifelong separatist and Verdun resident for over 30 years, are expressing uncertainty. “I’m very interested in the election. Something must change. We need someone who cares about people,” Wiseman told us, reflecting a broader sentiment of dissatisfaction. Wiseman remains undecided, caught between the Bloc and other candidates.

    The Bloc Québécois, led by candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé, is aggressively courting undecided voters. Sauvé, a former political staffer, is positioning himself as a fresh alternative to the entrenched Liberal establishment. “The Conservatives have no chance here. The NDP is essentially an extension of the Liberals who have taken this riding for granted,” Sauvé argues, urging voters to give him a one-year trial period.

    In contrast, NDP candidate Craig Sauvé, who has been campaigning since spring, is leveraging his experience as a Montreal city councillor. Despite controversy surrounding his support for a drug-consumption site, he is confident about the NDP’s chances. “The desire for change is stark,” Sauvé asserts, as his campaign gears up with over $100,000 in spending and a robust volunteer base.

    The Liberals, led by candidate Laura Palestini, are pulling out all stops to retain the seat. With high-profile visits from Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, the party is mobilizing its resources. “I think we’re in a very tight race,” Champagne acknowledged during his visit, emphasizing the party’s commitment to hard work.

    The Bloc Québécois is equally determined, with over 300 volunteers and significant support from Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The Bloc’s recent rally, drawing over 350 attendees, underscores their serious push to unseat the Liberals.

    As the final days of the campaign unfold, the outcome remains uncertain. With each party mobilizing its base and presenting contrasting visions for the riding, the byelection promises to be a closely watched and pivotal moment in Canadian politics.

    Source: 338Canada, Mainstreet Research, and local interviews.

  • Debate Fallout: Biden’s Struggles and Trump’s Modest Gains Analyzed in Latest Poll

    UPDATED Jun. 28, 2024, at 3:30 PM

    By Aaron Bycoffe, Amina Brown, and Nathaniel Rakich

    President Joe Biden’s performance at the first presidential general-election debate on Thursday night has sparked widespread criticism, not only from pundits reacting in real-time but also from American voters, as revealed by a new 538/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel.

    Biden’s delivery, characterized by hoarseness and stumbling, immediately instilled panic among many Democrats about their prospects in November. However, despite the uproar, the poll indicates that the debate did not significantly alter voters’ perceptions of either candidate.

    Respondents were surveyed on their expectations and evaluations of each candidate’s performance using a five-point scale ranging from “excellent” to “terrible,” with each response converted into a numerical score from 1 to 5. Biden received an average performance score of 1.99 out of 5, lower than his already modest expectations score of 2.62 among the same respondents. In comparison, Trump slightly exceeded expectations, scoring 3.04 out of 5 on performance after an expected score of 3.00.

    The debate seems to have intensified concerns about Biden’s suitability for the presidency, with voters rating him lower on both physical (2.23 out of 5) and mental fitness (2.27 out of 5) after the event. Conversely, Trump’s scores on both metrics slightly improved post-debate, with his physical fitness score rising from 3.06 to 3.16 and his mental fitness score from 2.79 to 2.88.

    In terms of emotional fitness for office, Biden maintained a slight edge over Trump, with average scores of approximately 2.8 and 2.6 respectively, before and after the debate.

    When directly comparing their performances, Trump emerged as the clear winner according to debate watchers, with 60% favoring his performance compared to 21% for Biden. Meanwhile, the debate’s impact on voter intention showed a slight decline for Biden, with 46.7% of likely voters considering voting for him post-debate, down 1.6 percentage points from before.

    Trump’s support remained relatively stable, edging up from 43.5% to 43.9% post-debate. Interestingly, third-party candidates saw gains, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver all increasing in potential support.

    While both candidates remain unpopular overall, Biden’s net favorability rating dipped slightly post-debate (from -19.4 to -20.2), while Trump’s improved marginally (from -20.8 to -19.4). A significant portion of likely voters (21%) hold unfavorable views of both major-party candidates, often referred to as “double haters,” whose voting decisions could prove pivotal in the upcoming election.

    Key issues like inflation, immigration, political extremism or polarization, and abortion continue to shape voter preferences, with Trump perceived as better equipped to handle economic concerns and Biden favored on issues of extremism and abortion.

    This analysis is based on polling conducted by Ipsos for 538 using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, ensuring a representative sample of the U.S. population. The survey compared responses before and after the June 27, 2024 debate, providing insights into voter sentiment and candidate performance.

    For more details on methodology and additional information, visit the full report on 538/Ipsos’s website.

    Editing and project management by Tia Yang. Copy editing by Cooper Burton. Quantitative editing by Geoffrey Skelley. Visual editing by Katie Marriner. Additional contributions by Mary Radcliffe and Holly Fuong. Original design and visual editing by Humera Lodhi and Christopher Groskopf. Art by Gabe Vogl.

    source: fivethirtyeight.com