The United Nations is warning governments and communities around the world to prepare for a potentially powerful El Niño event that could develop into one of the strongest on record, bringing widespread disruptions to weather patterns already intensified by climate change.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen throughout 2026, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events across multiple continents. Several national forecasting agencies now suggest the phenomenon could reach “super El Niño” status, a rare category reserved for the most intense events.
Scientists have been closely monitoring ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño develops. Data collected over recent months shows a dramatic shift from cooler-than-average conditions late last year to significantly warmer waters stretching across the central and eastern Pacific.
By April, warming in the key Niño monitoring region had become unmistakable, and temperatures have continued to rise since then.
El Niño occurs when changes in atmospheric wind patterns allow unusually warm ocean water to spread eastward across the equatorial Pacific. This warming alters atmospheric circulation, affecting rainfall, temperatures, and storm activity around the world.
Researchers say this year’s event shows signs of becoming exceptionally strong.
Professor Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office said scientists are highly confident that a major El Niño is developing and noted that it could potentially rival or exceed previous record-setting events.
Historical data shows that only a handful of “very strong” El Niño episodes have occurred since 1950. Current forecasting models estimate that ocean temperature anomalies could peak near levels seen during the powerful El Niño events of 1982-83 and 2015-16, with some projections suggesting even stronger warming.
One factor driving concern is the enormous pool of unusually warm water that has formed beneath the Pacific Ocean surface. Satellite observations, ocean buoys, and underwater monitoring systems have detected temperatures more than six degrees Celsius above average in some areas hundreds of meters below the surface.
Scientists say this subsurface heat often rises to the surface over time, strengthening El Niño and amplifying its influence on global weather systems.
Michelle L’Heureux, a scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said the magnitude of the subsurface warmth rivals conditions observed before some of the strongest El Niño events in modern history.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the developing phenomenon could worsen the impacts of an already warming planet.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” Guterres said, emphasizing that climate-related impacts are increasingly crossing borders and affecting communities worldwide.
Potential Global Impacts
While every El Niño event differs, strong episodes have historically produced significant weather disruptions across multiple regions.
In South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, El Niño often increases the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. India can experience a weakened monsoon season, potentially affecting agriculture and water supplies.
Parts of the Greater Horn of Africa may face drier conditions, while sections of East Asia and the southern United States often see heavier rainfall and an increased risk of flooding.
The effects can extend even further. El Niño influences global agricultural production, fisheries, transportation networks, and energy systems. Previous major events have been associated with food shortages, rising commodity prices, and economic losses reaching hundreds of billions of dollars worldwide.
Climate Change Raises the Stakes
Scientists caution that even if this year’s El Niño does not become a record-breaker, it could still produce unprecedented impacts because it is occurring on a planet that is already significantly warmer due to human-caused climate change.
The combination of natural climate variability and long-term global warming could push temperatures higher, intensify extreme weather events, and increase stress on vulnerable communities.
Although forecasting months in advance remains challenging, experts agree that governments, businesses, and disaster management agencies should begin preparing now for potentially severe weather disruptions later this year and into 2027.
