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Tag: 2024 election polls

  • Trump Overtakes Harris as Bookmakers’ Top Pick: Betting Odds Surge in 2024 Election Race

    Former President Donald Trump has emerged as the leading candidate in betting markets, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates data from five major platforms, Trump now holds a 53.2% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 45.8%.

    This notable shift comes after a week where Trump’s odds surged by 5 points, while Harris’ chances declined by a similar margin. The increase in confidence for Trump is reflected across several platforms, including crypto-based betting site Polymarket, where Trump’s odds are currently at 55.8%, compared to Harris’ 43.5%.

    On Kalshi—a platform recently cleared to continue accepting election bets after a federal court ruling—Trump holds a narrower lead, with a 52% chance versus Harris’ 48%. For the first time in two months, PredictIt shows Trump ahead of Harris, with shares favoring the former president priced at 54 cents (equivalent to a 54% chance of winning), while Harris lags behind at 51 cents.

    On the UK-based betting site Smarkets, Trump has also taken the lead, with 54% odds compared to Harris’ 45%.

    Trump himself has seized on the favorable odds, sharing a screenshot of Polymarket’s betting data on Truth Social. His recent social media activity has mirrored his past strategy of promoting positive polling and projections, often using such data to highlight momentum in his campaign. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has publicly endorsed Trump, has also shared Polymarket betting odds, claiming that betting markets are more accurate than polls due to the financial stakes involved. However, Musk offered no evidence to substantiate this claim.

    Despite the surge in betting market confidence, some social media users have raised concerns that these figures are skewed by large bets from high-stakes players. One prominent bettor on Polymarket, known as “Fredi9999,” has reportedly placed nearly $8 million on Trump securing a victory in 2024.

    Key Words:

    Trump’s odds have surged in major betting markets, surpassing Harris as the bookmakers’ favorite for the first time in months.

    Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and Smarkets all show Trump with a lead, with odds ranging between 52% and 55.8%.

    Musk has claimed that betting markets may offer a more reliable prediction than polls, though this assertion remains unproven.

    Surprisingly: Kalshi and PredictIt only allow U.S. citizens to place bets on election outcomes.

    Big Number: 2.4% – Harris’ current lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

    Source : Swifteradio.com

  • “Trump vs. Harris 2024: Harris Maintains Lead in Latest Polls”

    Harris Leads Trump in Multiple Polls as Race Tightens Ahead of 2024

    Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in several recent national polls, signaling a close race as the 2024 election approaches. According to a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll concluded on Monday, Harris is ahead with 46% of the vote compared to Trump’s 43%. This reflects a tightening race, as Harris led Trump by six points in a similar poll conducted from September 20-23.

    In another survey released Tuesday by The New York Times/Siena College, Harris leads 49% to 46%, marking the first time she has surpassed Trump in their polling since July. Morning Consult’s latest weekly poll also showed Harris with a consistent five-point advantage over Trump, echoing last week’s results.

    Recent polling trends suggest Harris is maintaining momentum. She was ahead in three surveys released last week: leading Trump 50% to 48% in an Emerson poll, 49% to 44% in a Susquehanna poll, and holding a three-point edge in an Economist/YouGov poll. These results closely mirror previous findings from late September.

    Over the past month, some polls have shown a tighter race. A Quinnipiac survey, along with a New York Times/Siena poll and a CNN/SSRS poll, indicated a tie between the two candidates. However, Harris continues to hold a slim but consistent lead in the majority of national polls.

    Harris Narrows Trump’s Lead Since July

    Since announcing her candidacy on July 21, Harris has managed to erase Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average. While her lead peaked at 3.7 points in late August, it has slightly decreased over the past two months, reflecting a highly competitive race.

    A poll from NBC News, conducted from September 16-23, revealed that Harris still leads Trump among Latino voters, though the margin is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll showed 54% of Latino voters support Harris, compared to 40% for Trump, with 6% undecided. While Harris’ support among Latinos is higher than Biden’s during the 2020 election, it still falls short of the overwhelming margins Democrats have historically held with this demographic.

    Impact of the Debate on Polling

    Harris’ post-debate performance appears to have stabilized her polling numbers. Surveys conducted before and after the debate indicate that while a majority of respondents believe Harris won, the overall race between her and Trump remains largely unchanged. A New York Times/Siena poll released on September 19 found that 67% of voters felt Harris performed well in the debate, compared to just 40% for Trump. An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken shortly after the debate showed Harris leading 52% to 46% among likely voters, consistent with her pre-debate standing.

    Tightening Race in Key Battlegrounds

    In key battleground states, Harris is also making gains. Notably, she has significantly narrowed Trump’s lead in Iowa from 18 points in June to just four points in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted in early September. The poll was led by well-regarded pollster Ann Selzer, known for her accuracy in predicting election outcomes.

    With several months left before the 2024 election, Harris maintains a slim but steady lead over Trump in national polls, positioning the race as a highly competitive contest as voters head into the final stretch.

    Source: Swifteradio.com