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Poll aggregator 338Canada suggests a tight race, with the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals nearly neck-and-neck. The Bloc stands at 29%, slightly ahead of the Liberals at 28%, with the NDP trailing at 24%. This is a dramatic departure from past elections, where Liberals have historically held the seat with comfortable margins.

As the election looms, voters like Daniel Wiseman, a lifelong separatist and Verdun resident for over 30 years, are expressing uncertainty. “I’m very interested in the election. Something must change. We need someone who cares about people,” Wiseman told us, reflecting a broader sentiment of dissatisfaction. Wiseman remains undecided, caught between the Bloc and other candidates.

The Bloc Québécois, led by candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé, is aggressively courting undecided voters. Sauvé, a former political staffer, is positioning himself as a fresh alternative to the entrenched Liberal establishment. “The Conservatives have no chance here. The NDP is essentially an extension of the Liberals who have taken this riding for granted,” Sauvé argues, urging voters to give him a one-year trial period.

In contrast, NDP candidate Craig Sauvé, who has been campaigning since spring, is leveraging his experience as a Montreal city councillor. Despite controversy surrounding his support for a drug-consumption site, he is confident about the NDP’s chances. “The desire for change is stark,” Sauvé asserts, as his campaign gears up with over $100,000 in spending and a robust volunteer base.

The Liberals, led by candidate Laura Palestini, are pulling out all stops to retain the seat. With high-profile visits from Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, the party is mobilizing its resources. “I think we’re in a very tight race,” Champagne acknowledged during his visit, emphasizing the party’s commitment to hard work.

The Bloc Québécois is equally determined, with over 300 volunteers and significant support from Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. The Bloc’s recent rally, drawing over 350 attendees, underscores their serious push to unseat the Liberals.

As the final days of the campaign unfold, the outcome remains uncertain. With each party mobilizing its base and presenting contrasting visions for the riding, the byelection promises to be a closely watched and pivotal moment in Canadian politics.

Source: 338Canada, Mainstreet Research, and local interviews.