Kamala Harris Holds Slim Lead Over Trump in Key ‘Blue Wall’ States, Polls Reveal
New polling data suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is edging out former President Donald Trump in pivotal “blue wall” states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – considered essential to winning the upcoming presidential election. Marist polls, released Friday, show Harris holding a slight advantage over Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, leading 50% to 48% in both states. In Wisconsin, Harris is ahead by three points, 51% to 48%.
However, these leads are within the margin of error for each poll – 3.4 percentage points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and 3.5 points in Wisconsin. The surveys, conducted from October 27-30, indicate a tight race heading into Election Day.
Swing-State Trends Point to Another Tight Election
The latest numbers underscore the high-stakes battle reminiscent of previous elections. In 2020, President Biden won by a slim margin of 44,000 votes across key battleground states, securing his path to the White House. Similarly, in 2016, Trump’s victory hinged on a razor-thin margin of fewer than 78,000 votes in the same “blue wall” states.
This year, Harris’s slight edge in these states appears to be influenced by independent voters, who have increasingly shifted in her favor. Harris now holds a six-point lead over Trump among independents in Michigan (52% to 46%), up from just two points in September. In Wisconsin, her lead among independents has also grown, reaching six points at the end of October.
The biggest shift is seen in Pennsylvania, where a significant 19-point swing among independents favors Harris. Marist polling shows her leading Trump among Pennsylvania independents 55% to 40%, a turnaround from September, when Trump led with this group by 49% to 45%.
Race Remains Tight Across Key States
While Harris shows gains with independent and white voters, the gender gap that benefited Democrats in 2020 appears narrower this time, especially in Pennsylvania, according to Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
Adding to the competitive landscape, a USA Today/Suffolk poll released Friday finds Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania, with both securing 49% of the vote among likely voters. The poll, conducted from October 27-30 with a 4.4-point margin of error, reflects the unpredictable nature of the race. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted, “It’s basically a statistical tie.”
Further polling from the Detroit Free Press highlights Harris’s slight three-point lead in Michigan, bolstered by support from women and Black voters. However, this advantage remains within the margin of error, indicating that all three “blue wall” states are far from decided.
As the election approaches, the narrow margins and last-minute shifts emphasize how crucial every vote will be in determining the next president, making these battleground states the focus of intense attention.
Source : Swifteradio.com
