Nigeria is set to face a sharp rise in headline inflation, projected to hit 37% by 2026, according to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This follows the rebasing of the country’s Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this year. Inflation, which averaged 33.2% in 2024, is expected to dip slightly to 26.5% in 2025 before surging again. The IMF attributes this to ongoing structural challenges and persistent price pressures.
The projection has stirred mixed reactions among local economists, who argue the outlook is overly pessimistic and not reflective of recent policy shifts. Some analysts maintain that improved productivity and targeted reforms could prevent such inflationary extremes.
The report also revised Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast downward to 3.0% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026 due to falling global oil prices, which threaten the country’s fiscal and external stability. The IMF expects Nigeria’s current account surplus to shrink from 9.1% in 2024 to 5.2% in 2026, despite a surplus driven by trade and capital inflows.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings offered a more moderate outlook, forecasting an average surplus of 3.3% through 2025–2026, citing gains in local refining and energy reforms. Economists stress that inflation control hinges on managing money supply, bolstering food production, and stabilizing the naira. Many believe structural reforms, improved oil output, and fiscal discipline are essential to avert the dire projections.
Source: Swifteradio.com
