The Earth is headed for several more years of record-breaking heat, with forecasts pointing to increasingly deadly and extreme weather, two leading global meteorological agencies warned on Wednesday. A joint five-year forecast by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office reveals there’s an 80% chance a new annual global temperature record will be set in the next five years, and a strong likelihood the planet will continue surpassing the critical temperature thresholds defined by the Paris Agreement.
Climate scientists emphasize that even slight increases in global mean temperatures — driven by human-induced climate change — have devastating real-world consequences, including intensified hurricanes, extreme precipitation, prolonged droughts, and catastrophic wildfires. “With every tenth of a degree, we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events,” said Johan Rockstrom of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The agencies report a 70% chance that the global average temperature over the next five years will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and an 86% chance that at least one year will cross that threshold. Most concerning, there is now a small but unprecedented possibility that global temperatures could temporarily breach 2°C — the Paris Agreement’s more extreme threshold — before 2030.
This grim forecast is backed by more than 200 computer simulations from 10 global research centers. A decade ago, the chance of breaching the 1.5°C level was estimated at just 1%. That milestone was surpassed last year. “It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that’s what the science is telling us,” said UK Met Office scientist Leon Hermanson.
While the Paris accord targets average global warming over 20 years, not single-year anomalies, the data shows Earth has already warmed by about 1.4°C since the mid-1800s. The Arctic continues to warm at a rate 3.5 times faster than the global average, accelerating ice melt and sea level rise.
WMO climate services director Chris Hewitt warned that rising heat will increase the risk of deadly heatwaves, wildfires, and severe health impacts. “Unless people can be better protected, more lives will be at risk,” said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office.
Scientists liken global warming to an escalator, with temporary El Niño events creating steep spikes. But what’s alarming, experts say, is that after each spike, global temperatures no longer return to previous levels. “Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford climate scientist Rob Jackson.
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