Dollar Dips as US Polls Shift Towards Kamala Harris: Market Movements and Key Economic Events
The US dollar weakened as investor sentiment shifted following new poll data indicating that Kamala Harris is gaining momentum in the presidential race. This market reaction is seen as a response to changing expectations around the upcoming election. Meanwhile, oil prices rose, spurred by OPEC+ delaying its planned production increase. These developments occurred in a backdrop of diverse economic signals and investor expectations around central bank policies, interest rates, and fiscal moves.
Dollar Declines as Election Polls Show Harris Gaining Support
The US dollar index fell significantly, marking its most substantial drop in over two months. This decline came as the Des Moines Register published a poll showing Harris leading Donald Trump with a 47% to 44% advantage in Iowa, a state Trump previously secured in both 2016 and 2020. Market participants reacted to the shifting poll data by adjusting their positions, signaling a reduced confidence in a Trump victory. The Mexican peso, a currency that faced sharp declines following Trump’s 2016 win, emerged as a top performer against the dollar amid the recent shifts.
Political shifts have historically influenced the dollar’s strength, with Trump’s economic policies typically linked to higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar due to his approach toward tariffs and fiscal policy. However, with poll results showing a close contest, investors are re-evaluating these factors, leading to fluctuations in the dollar’s value and in US Treasury yields.
Treasury Yields and Investor Sentiment
Over the past few weeks, the dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields had both climbed to their highest levels since July. Investors initially appeared optimistic about Trump’s re-election prospects, betting on his continued support for pro-growth fiscal policies. However, Trump’s policies have also sparked concerns over a potentially increasing federal deficit and rising inflation, factors that could weigh on the long-term value of Treasuries. Bill Maldonado, CEO of Eastspring Investments, emphasized the unpredictability surrounding policy implementation under Trump, making it difficult for investors to firmly establish market positions.
Asian shares and Treasury futures posted gains amid these developments, as some investors re-evaluated their portfolios. European stock futures followed suit, inching up alongside US futures after Wall Street closed on a positive note last Friday, partly buoyed by strong earnings from technology giants like Amazon and Intel.
Central Bank Decisions and Economic Indicators in Focus
In addition to the US presidential race, key economic events this week include central bank rate decisions in the US, UK, and Australia, which will shape broader market trends. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce rates by 25 basis points, following data indicating a slowdown in US hiring. Job growth advanced at its slowest pace since 2020, although this figure may have been influenced by recent hurricanes and a significant strike. Economists are similarly predicting a quarter-point rate cut from the Bank of England, bringing its benchmark rate to 4.75%.
These decisions by major central banks reflect ongoing efforts to stabilize economies amid global uncertainties. With inflation and economic growth slowing, policymakers aim to balance support for economic activity while mitigating long-term risks.
Oil and Gold Prices
In the commodities market, oil prices rose, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining nearly 2%. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to delay their scheduled December production hike by a month, a move intended to stabilize oil prices. Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East contributed to rising prices, as Iran issued warnings against Israel, further stirring geopolitical concerns.
Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, remained relatively stable amid these developments. The stability in gold prices reflects cautious optimism in the market, with investors balancing safe-haven assets against the more volatile equity markets and currency fluctuations.
Source : Swifteradio.com
