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Home WorldFragile Iran–U.S.–Israel Ceasefire Begins, Raises Uncertainty as New Attacks Reported Hours After Deal

Fragile Iran–U.S.–Israel Ceasefire Begins, Raises Uncertainty as New Attacks Reported Hours After Deal

by Olawunmi Sola-Otegbade
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Iran, the United States and Israel have agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire in an eleventh-hour diplomatic breakthrough that briefly eased fears of a major escalation in the Middle East. However, reports of fresh missile and drone attacks across the region just hours after the announcement have raised questions about whether the deal can hold.

The ceasefire came after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that a massive American bombing campaign could devastate Iran if an agreement was not reached. The war, which began on Feb. 28 when the United States launched military operations alongside Israel, has already triggered widespread destruction and thousands of casualties across the region.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance described the ceasefire as “fragile,” noting that key elements of the agreement remain unclear and that the sides involved appear to have different interpretations of its terms.

One of the most controversial provisions involves Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas normally passes. Iranian officials say the agreement would allow Tehran to formalize a new policy of charging transit fees to ships moving through the strait.

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A regional official involved in the negotiations said the plan would allow both Iran and Oman to collect shipping fees, with Iran expected to use the funds for post-war reconstruction. The proposal could overturn decades of precedent treating the strategic waterway as an international passage free for global transit, and Gulf Arab states have not indicated whether they support the move.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added further uncertainty by saying passage through the strait would occur under Iranian military management.

Another major question concerns Iran’s nuclear program. A version of Iran’s ceasefire proposal released in Farsi included language suggesting the United States would accept Iran’s right to continue enriching uranium. However, U.S. officials disputed that claim, and President Trump called the document “fraudulent” without providing further details.

Trump said Washington intends to work with Tehran to remove enriched uranium believed to be buried underground following U.S. and Israeli strikes earlier this year. Iran has not confirmed that plan.

Tehran has long insisted its nuclear activities are peaceful, although it enriched uranium to 60 percent purity before the war, a level considered technically close to weapons-grade.

The ceasefire negotiations were reportedly mediated with help from Pakistan, which said talks aimed at reaching a permanent settlement could begin in Islamabad as early as Friday.

The agreement also created confusion about fighting in Lebanon. Pakistan and other mediators suggested hostilities involving Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group would pause as part of the deal. Israeli officials rejected that interpretation, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the ceasefire only applies to direct fighting with Iran.

Israeli airstrikes continued in Lebanon on Wednesday, hitting parts of Beirut while ground operations against Hezbollah forces remained underway.

Tensions were also visible inside Iran following the announcement. Pro-government demonstrators gathered in Tehran chanting slogans against the United States and Israel while burning American and Israeli flags, highlighting strong opposition from hard-line factions to any compromise.

Military activity across the region appeared to continue despite the announcement. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel and the United Arab Emirates all issued warnings of incoming Iranian missiles shortly after the ceasefire was declared.

An oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island was struck in an attack that sparked a fire, according to Iranian state television, though the source of the strike was not immediately confirmed.

Meanwhile, air defense systems in the United Arab Emirates intercepted incoming missiles, and Kuwait reported responding to a large wave of drone attacks.

The broader conflict has already taken a heavy toll. Iranian officials reported more than 1,900 deaths in the country by late March, while more than 1,500 people have been killed in Lebanon and around one million displaced.

Elsewhere in the region, more than two dozen people have died in Gulf Arab states and the occupied West Bank. Israel has reported 23 deaths, while 13 U.S. service members have been killed since the fighting began.

Despite the uncertain situation, global markets reacted positively to the ceasefire announcement, with oil prices dropping and stock markets rising amid hopes that a wider regional war might still be avoided.

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